美联储年内第三次降息恐难落地，人民币汇率坚挺，海外美元资产陷流动“拉锯战”

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly diminished, leading to challenges in adjusting investment strategies for dollar-denominated assets as global markets face potential yield shrinkage [2][3][4]. Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department announced a delay in the release of the November employment report to December 16, which will include some October data, causing the market to largely abandon bets on a December rate cut [2][4]. - The adjusted non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.3%-4.4% [2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the employment data delay, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds rose across various maturities, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2.95 basis points to 3.591%, and the 10-year yield rising by 2.52 basis points to 4.137% [4]. - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 386.51 points (0.84%) to 45,752.26, and the S&P 500 dropping by 103.4 points (1.56%) to 6,538.76 [5]. Currency Trends - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a high of approximately 7.09 on November 14, contributing to the stability of dollar deposits in the offshore interbank market [2][5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong position against the dollar, with potential fluctuations influenced by various factors, including central bank policies [6][7]. Investment Strategies - The delay in the Fed's rate cut and the strong RMB are expected to have significant effects on the liquidity of dollar-denominated assets, particularly impacting dollar deposits and investments in U.S. stocks and bonds [8]. - There is a growing trend of investment in Hong Kong stocks, with a notable increase in IPO financing, which has reached 250.5 billion HKD, a 172.44% increase compared to the previous year [10]. Emerging Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current strong dollar may represent a temporary rebound within a longer-term weak dollar trend, encouraging investors to consider emerging market assets as a favorable entry point [11].