记者观察 | 美联储降息迷雾

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations experienced a dramatic reversal within a single day, influenced by key economic data and internal policy disagreements among Fed officials [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - On November 21, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 35.4%, but after comments from New York Fed President John Williams, it surged to approximately 70% [1][3]. - The fluctuations in rate cut expectations have led to volatility in financial markets, with significant impacts on stock indices and the strength of the US dollar [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Insights - The US Labor Department reported that September's non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since April [2]. - Despite the strong job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and previous months' job growth figures were revised downwards, indicating potential concerns for the Fed [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, expressed caution regarding a potential rate cut in December, citing stagnation in inflation as a key concern [3]. - The internal divisions within the Fed are highlighted by the contrasting views on employment data and inflation, complicating the decision-making process [2][4]. Group 4: Economic Data Release Delays - Due to a prior government shutdown, the release of the October non-farm payroll report has been delayed, which may hinder the Fed's ability to make informed decisions during the December meeting [4]. - The upcoming release of previously delayed economic data could lead to further adjustments in market expectations [5].