专家预言应验了？2026年的房价，已经出现5个信号！

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with average housing prices dropping over 30% from their peak, aligning with Jack Ma's prediction that housing could become as affordable as green onions [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with over 7.3 million listings nationwide, indicating a lack of confidence among property owners [6]. - The overall supply of housing is significantly exceeding demand, with 600 million homes reported in China, suggesting a surplus that could lead to further price declines [8]. - The average living space per person has surpassed 41 square meters, indicating that most families' housing needs are already met, which contributes to the cooling market [8]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Many individuals are facing stagnant wages and increased job uncertainty, leading to a more cautious approach to home buying, as high property prices are becoming increasingly unaffordable [10]. - The declining marriage and birth rates are reducing the number of potential homebuyers, with marriage registrations dropping by over 20% from 2022 to 2024 [12]. - The government plans to accelerate the construction of 6 million affordable housing units, which could divert demand away from the general housing market, increasing competition and putting downward pressure on prices [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The combination of increased supply, reduced demand, and economic uncertainty suggests that housing prices may experience a gradual decline, particularly in previously hot markets [16]. - The overall trend points towards a more rational real estate market, with prices stabilizing rather than experiencing rapid increases as seen in the past [16].