全球！跨资产！比惨大会

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Wande All A index dropping by 3.17% and the Wande All A Equal Weight Index falling by 3.74% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45% at 3834.89 points, breaching the 3900-point level [1] - The market's performance indicates a bearish trend, as the Wande All A index fell below the lower Bollinger Band [1][5] Global Market Influence - The decline in A-shares is part of a global market trend, initiated by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq 100, which fell over 2% after opening more than 2% higher [2] - Nvidia's earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations, led to a 3.15% drop in its stock, indicating that the market is trading on "whisper numbers" rather than consensus estimates [4][6] - The U.S. labor market report showed a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls but also a rise in the unemployment rate, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [6] Sector Performance - The "consumption downgrade" narrative is emerging in the U.S., with Walmart's stock rising by 6.46% due to strong earnings, while Target's stock fell by 2.79% due to disappointing results [7] - In the A-share market, micro-cap stocks led the decline, with the Wande Micro-cap Index dropping by 4.87%, reflecting a retreat in risk appetite [11] - Traditional defensive sectors, such as banks and insurance, showed some resilience, but overall market sentiment remains weak [31][34] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching its 100-day moving average, which has historically served as a support level [8] - A significant number of sectors, including steel and chemicals, experienced declines of around 4%, indicating a broad-based sell-off [19] - The market's risk appetite has diminished significantly, as evidenced by the sharp declines in traditionally lower-risk sectors [19] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions in light of the current market conditions [20][22] - The sentiment among different models varies, with some suggesting a reduction in exposure to 20% while others maintain a more optimistic stance [21][22] - The overall market outlook remains uncertain, heavily influenced by external factors such as U.S. market stability and economic indicators [31][34]