帮主郑重：油价跌、黄金收窄、伦铜涨？大宗商品分化背后的中长线逻辑！

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding oil, gold, and copper markets [3][4][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced significant declines due to market speculation about a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions and an oversupply situation in 2024 [3]. - Despite a slight recovery following the implementation of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to ongoing expectations of a peace deal [3][4]. Gold Market - Gold prices have shown volatility, initially declining due to profit-taking but later recovering as the New York Fed President signaled potential interest rate cuts, increasing market bets on a December rate reduction [3][4]. - The geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. stance on Ukraine continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, despite short-term fluctuations [3][5]. Copper Market - Copper prices have risen contrary to the overall trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts which lower financing costs for businesses and could boost industrial demand [4]. - Other base metals like aluminum and zinc have not followed copper's upward trend, indicating a divergence within the sector [4]. Investment Strategy - For long-term investment, the focus should be on the overarching trends of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and actual supply-demand dynamics rather than short-term market noise [5]. - The oil market may face continued volatility in the short term, but long-term supply-demand balance will be crucial for price direction [5]. - Gold remains a viable long-term investment due to its role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, with short-term pullbacks presenting potential buying opportunities [5]. - Basic metals like copper should be monitored for industrial demand recovery, as this will influence their long-term price trends [5].