供增需减 PTA上行乏力

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Cost Support - Cost support remains strong, with expectations of oversupply in oil from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil price changes to downstream industries is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2][3] PX Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8%, a drop of 3 percentage points. Asian PX operating rates are at 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. Several PX facilities in Asia are undergoing maintenance, tightening the PX spot market supply. The overall PX supply-demand balance is improving, supporting PTA costs [6] Inventory Pressure - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock for 13-14 days. The overall inventory level is lower than in the past two years, indicating limited inventory pressure [8] PTA and Polyester Production - By 2025, PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons, with a growth rate of 9.5%. The polyester industry is projected to maintain a high average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA. However, weak weaving orders may lead to reduced purchasing intentions among polyester companies [11][13] Market Dynamics - The PTA market is currently facing a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with prices expected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [11][13]