薛鹤翔：财政加码护航经济回升

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding market expectations of 51,000, although revisions for July and August showed a combined downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [1][9] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since 2021 and above the expected 4.3% [1][9] - Employment in sectors such as education and healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and construction continued to rise, while transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and manufacturing saw declines [1][9] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased, but there is a significant chance of a rate cut in January due to ongoing inflation risks and economic uncertainty [2][10] - The U.S. Labor Department will no longer release a separate non-farm payroll report for October, merging it into the November report, which will be published after the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year [2][10] - Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials indicate a pause in rate cuts in December, but a potential resumption in January remains likely [2][10] Group 3 - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, while tax revenue grew by 8.6%, maintaining positive growth for seven consecutive months [3][4] - The securities transaction stamp duty increased by 17.52% year-on-year, driven by sustained activity in the stock market [3] - Government fund revenue fell by 18.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in land transfer income [4] Group 4 - October fiscal expenditure declined by 19.1% year-on-year, with significant reductions in government fund expenditures, which dropped by 38.2% [4] - The slowdown in fiscal spending may lead to an acceleration in future expenditures, supported by new policy financial tools and central government allocations [4] Group 5 - The industrial production in October showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, indicating resilience in the industrial sector [15] - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech industries, demonstrated significant growth, reflecting the effectiveness of industrial upgrade policies [15] - The consumer market in October continued to expand, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year, driven by a shift towards service consumption [20]