Even Nvidia can’t help a stock market that’s in real trouble

Market Overview - Market breadth has been struggling, with both breadth oscillators in oversold territory, indicating potential for buy signals when breadth improves, but market can still decline sharply during this period [1] - The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently in a trading range between 6,500 and 6,900, with a breakdown below 6,500 being extremely negative for U.S. stocks [5][6] - New highs and lows on the NYSE have shown conflicting signals, with new lows dominating recently, generating a new sell signal [7][8] Volatility and Options - Volatility remains high, with the VIX spiking to 26.20, indicating a potential buy signal for stocks if VIX closes below 23.20 [9] - The construct of volatility derivatives is modestly bullish, with VIX futures trading at a discount to VIX, but January futures trading above December futures indicates short-term market health [11] Company-Specific Insights - Nvidia (NVDA) options have been overpriced leading into earnings, with the at-the-money straddle priced at $13.65, or 7.3% of the stock price, reflecting high market optimism that did not materialize [4] - A new put-call ratio sell signal has arisen for Prologis Inc. (PLD), prompting action to buy puts in line with the market [13][14] Recommendations and Actions - The company will continue to roll deeply in-the-money options and follow individual signals as they are generated [12] - Specific positions include holding long puts for BXP as long as the weighted put-call ratio remains on a sell signal, and managing SPY positions based on market movements [20][21]