每年全球消耗约50亿吨石油，按照这个速度，石油还能用多久？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of oil consumption and production, highlighting that while oil reserves are substantial, the rate of consumption is decreasing due to the rise of renewable energy sources. The predictions of oil depletion are increasingly seen as inaccurate as technology advances and energy transitions occur. Group 1: Oil Consumption and Production Dynamics - Global oil consumption is approximately 5 billion tons annually, equating to about 13.69 million tons per day, enough to fuel 150 million cars for over six months [1] - The notion of oil depletion has been a recurring theme since 1914, yet technological advancements have continually expanded the potential for oil extraction [3][5] - The introduction of hydraulic fracturing technology has significantly reduced extraction costs, allowing the U.S. to transition from a major oil importer to an exporter, increasing global oil availability by 10% [9] - Deep-sea drilling advancements have also contributed to increased oil reserves, with deep-sea oil fields expected to add 5 billion barrels of reserves in 2025 alone [11] Group 2: Shifts in Energy Consumption - The speed of oil consumption is slowing, with predictions indicating that global oil demand will peak by 2030 and subsequently decline [35] - In China, the consumption of refined oil is projected to decrease by 2.4% in 2024, marking the first significant decline, attributed to the rise of new energy vehicles [18] - The industrial sector is also transitioning away from oil, with many factories replacing diesel with electricity and natural gas, leading to a reduction of 50 million tons of oil consumption in the steel industry alone [20] Group 3: Future of Oil in Energy Structure - By 2050, oil's share in the global energy mix is expected to drop from 30% to below 10%, with its primary use shifting towards chemical production rather than as a fuel source [38] - The development of bio-based alternatives for plastics and chemicals may further diminish the role of oil, as advancements in renewable energy technologies continue [40] - The transition to clean energy is anticipated to enhance energy security and reduce environmental pollution, leading to a more sustainable future [46][50]