帮主郑重：美联储库克发出警告！这4类资产要凉？你的钱袋危险了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook has issued a warning about the high valuations of multiple asset classes, indicating an increased likelihood of significant price declines [1] Risk Points - Cook identified four key areas of concern: the stock market, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and the real estate market, all of which are prone to sharp declines when liquidity tightens [3] - The proportion of U.S. Treasury holdings by hedge funds has surged to a record high of 10.3%, raising the risk of forced liquidations leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs if market conditions change [3] Private Credit Market - The private credit market, which accounts for 11% of U.S. GDP, is emerging as a new source of risk, with UBS predicting a potential 3 percentage point increase in default rates by 2026, surpassing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds [4] - The growing interconnection between private credit and banks/insurance institutions is concerning, as U.S. banks' loans to private credit firms have surged to nearly $300 billion, posing a risk of systemic issues if any segment falters [4] Financial System Resilience - Cook reassured that the current financial system is more resilient than in 2008, with higher bank capital adequacy ratios, making a repeat of a comprehensive crisis unlikely [5] Strategy for Long-term Investors - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation sectors, particularly those reliant on low-cost financing such as leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate [6] - Monitoring liquidity indicators is crucial, as the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool balance has plummeted from $2.55 trillion to $219 billion, indicating a thinner market buffer [6] - Holding cash for potential opportunities is recommended, as quality assets may be mispriced due to liquidity shocks, presenting long-term investment opportunities [6]