2026年全球经济与市场展望报告：重塑（英文）-Mercer

Economic Growth - The global economy is expected to experience moderate recovery in 2026, driven by policy adjustments, AI technology advancements, and evolving geopolitical dynamics [1][11][13] - The US economy shows resilience, with AI-related capital expenditures projected to approach $500 billion, supported by the OBBBA act and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][28][31] - The Eurozone is expected to see growth driven by increased infrastructure and defense spending in Germany, although France's economy remains relatively weak [1][29] - Japan is entering a new growth phase, moving away from deflation, with improvements in wages and corporate investment [1][36] - China's economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by high-tech advantages and localized AI development, despite ongoing real estate challenges [1][38][42] Inflation - US inflation is projected to rise in the short term due to tariffs but is expected to return to target levels by early to mid-2027 [2][20][44] - Eurozone core inflation is anticipated to trend towards the ECB's 2% target, with wage growth expected to decline [2][51] - In the UK, inflation is expected to fall significantly due to one-off factors and slower wage growth [2][50] - Japan's inflation is expected to experience temporary fluctuations but will likely remain close to the BoJ's 2% target [2][54] - China is expected to remain near deflationary levels due to supply-demand imbalances and weak labor market conditions [2][59] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, with market expectations suggesting rates may approach 3% by the end of 2026 [2][67] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at 2% for an extended period, with minor adjustments expected [2][68] - The Bank of England is anticipated to cut rates more aggressively as inflation returns to target levels [2][69] - The Bank of Japan may implement further rate hikes in response to economic growth and inflationary pressures [2][73] - Emerging market central banks are expected to continue easing monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace [2][73] Markets - Developed market equities are expected to show strong earnings growth driven by the AI boom, although high valuations pose risks [3][90][92] - Emerging market equities present a mixed outlook, with potential upside from AI and USD weakness countered by trade uncertainties [3][95] - Japanese equities are viewed positively due to the end of deflation and corporate governance reforms, which may enhance profitability [3][96] - Global nominal government bonds are seen as neutral, with specific regional views favoring UK long-dated gilts due to expected interest rate cuts [3][101] - Credit markets are neutral on investment-grade credit, with high yield credit spreads remaining tight, indicating limited upside [3][106] Private Markets - Private markets are experiencing a "democratization" trend, attracting retail investments, particularly in AI-related sectors [3][4] - Hedge funds are benefiting from market volatility and structural trends, presenting alpha opportunities [3][4]