美联储三把手“放鸽”，12月降息预期明显升温

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has room for further interest rate cuts due to increased downside risks in the labor market and eased inflationary pressures, as stated by New York Fed President Williams [2] - Traders have significantly increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with the probability rising to nearly 70% from less than 40% the previous day [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq rising over 2% following Williams' dovish comments, providing some relief from previous sell-offs [2] Group 2 - A recent study by the San Francisco Fed indicates a sharp decline in U.S. immigration could lead to slowed labor force growth or even contraction, with net immigration expected to drop to around 515,000 this year [3] - The report raises concerns about the decreasing working-age population, which may become a persistent trend affecting labor growth in the coming years [3] - The Labor Department's inability to publish key unemployment data due to a government shutdown has delayed the release of important employment statistics, which will now be included in the November employment report set for December 16 [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October CPI report due to data collection issues stemming from the government shutdown, which affects the monitoring of economic health [4] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve has its own data sources to effectively monitor the economy [4] - Recent research suggests that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on rate cuts in December, with a dovish majority among the voting members [4]