邓正红能源软实力：市场预期制裁解除和石油供应增加 导致国际油价走低

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have declined due to expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the influence of U.S. energy policies, highlighting the profound impact of geopolitical dynamics and regulatory restructuring on the energy landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of November 21, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $58.06 per barrel, down 1.59%, and Brent crude at $62.56 per barrel, down 1.29% [2][3] - The market anticipates increased oil supply if sanctions against Russia are lifted following a potential peace agreement, which could exacerbate existing supply surplus concerns [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Energy Policy - The Trump administration's energy policy prioritizes traditional energy sources and aims to lower energy prices, including measures to relax fossil fuel regulations and expand oil and gas exploration [5][6] - The administration's diplomatic pressure on OPEC to increase production aligns with its goal of reducing overall commodity prices [5][6] Group 3: OPEC's Production Strategy - OPEC, under Saudi leadership, has gradually increased oil production since April, contributing to a sustained rise in market supply [3][6] - Concerns about supply surplus are significant, with projections indicating an average daily surplus of approximately 1.72 million barrels for the year [6] Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The ongoing military conflict and the stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are critical factors influencing oil market dynamics [4][7] - The market's expectations regarding the peace agreement and its implications for sanctions and oil supply are central to current oil price movements [7]