焦炭第四轮提涨落地！累计涨220元／吨，下游钢厂亏损面扩大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the coking coal price has experienced a significant increase due to cost support and downstream steel mill restocking demand, with a cumulative price increase of 220 yuan/ton as of November 19 [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a "V" shaped trend in 2025, with a notable decline in the first half of the year, where prices dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 28.48% [2] - The rebound in coking coal prices began in late July, with a strong upward trend observed, although there were two brief corrections in September due to weak steel mill sales and profit pressures [3] Group 2 - As of November 21, the price of coking coal in Shanghai reached 1630 yuan/ton, marking a 38.14% increase from the July low [5] - The driving force behind the price increase in the second half of 2025 is attributed to rising coking coal costs and a tightening supply-demand balance, with coking coal prices in Shanxi reaching 1655 yuan/ton, a 53.95% increase since July [6][7] - The increase in coking coal prices has directly raised production costs for downstream steel mills, leading to a squeeze on their profit margins, with an increase in iron water costs by 90 yuan/ton due to the rise in coking coal prices [8] Group 3 - The continuous price increases have led to a narrowing profit margin for steel mills, which are now less willing to offer discounts, despite high iron water production supporting rigid demand for coking coal [9] - The expectation is that the upward momentum in coking coal prices may face resistance due to weakening steel prices and seasonal demand reduction, potentially leading to a decline in coking coal prices by the end of November or early December [8][9]