失守3900点后，A股慢牛走向何方？

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market downturn is primarily driven by rising concerns over valuation bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve during its October meeting, which increased the likelihood of maintaining current interest rates in December, thereby exerting pressure on global tech growth sectors [2][6][7]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, closing below 3900 points, while the Shenzhen Component dropped over 3% [2][3]. - The A-share market saw 5071 stocks decline, representing 93% of the total, with all 31 major industry sectors experiencing losses [5][6]. - The Hang Seng Index also showed weakness, declining by 2.38% [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI and robotics, is facing scrutiny for potential bubble risks, as highlighted by fund managers who noted that these sectors are experiencing high trading congestion and significant capital absorption effects [3][8]. - The recent market adjustments are characterized by a global trend, with major indices retreating after reaching new highs [2][4]. Economic Indicators - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the AI industry remains positive, with expectations of continued capital expenditure growth among leading tech firms in China and the U.S. through 2026 [2][9]. - Domestic economic indicators, such as PMI data and industrial output, have shown improvement, suggesting a steady recovery in the economic fundamentals [9]. Investment Strategy - Investment institutions recommend a balanced approach in asset allocation, focusing on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and those with improved supply-demand dynamics, while also considering quality tech growth stocks that have undergone sufficient valuation adjustments [9][10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a systemic restructuring that could create opportunities in sectors like renewable energy [9].