重新审视公共债务的功能、前景及风险防范

Core Viewpoint - The growth of public debt is not inherently negative; reasonable growth is a primary means to stabilize the economy, promote social development, and respond to crises [2][18]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development of Public Debt - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, there has been a significant increase in global public debt, with rising debt risks [2]. - Historical crises indicate that excessive borrowing and fiscal expansion are primary causes of government bankruptcy, leading to political and social crises [2]. - The evolution of public debt has been documented in various works, highlighting its role in the development of Western democratic systems and its historical significance [4][5]. Group 2: Current Trends and Risks in Public Debt - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global public debt will rise to over 95% of GDP by 2025, with potential increases to 117% by 2027 under adverse conditions [11]. - The global public debt reached a historical high of approximately $313 trillion, with significant contributions from developed countries [13]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with projections indicating a continued upward trend due to reliance on borrowing for government spending [12]. Group 3: Structural Differences in Debt Management - Developed countries have advantages in managing public debt, including stable government credit and comprehensive fiscal frameworks, while developing countries face constraints and risks of debt default [14][15]. - The debt burden in developing countries has been growing rapidly, with some nations experiencing high debt-to-GDP ratios and significant external debt challenges [16]. Group 4: Recommendations for Sustainable Debt Management - Effective management of public debt requires a balance between fiscal tightening and economic growth, with a focus on improving the efficiency of public debt usage [19]. - Global coordination in public debt governance is essential, with suggestions for increasing concessional loans and enhancing transparency in financing terms [20].