“撒钱式”刺激难稳信心，日本金融市场承压

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing significant market turmoil due to a combination of political, fiscal, and diplomatic pressures, leading to a sharp sell-off in government bonds and a decline in the yen's value [2][5][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Since mid-November, Japan's government bonds have experienced large-scale sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis [2][5]. - The yen has depreciated significantly, hitting a 10-month low of 157 yen per dollar [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.48% over a week, dropping below 49,000 points [5]. Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - On November 21, the government announced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, with total expected investments reaching 42.8 trillion yen when including local government and private sector contributions [5]. - The plan includes tax cuts and energy subsidies, but concerns about its long-term impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability have overshadowed these measures [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The scale of fiscal spending has exceeded market expectations, raising alarms about Japan's debt pressure and inflation risks [7]. - Despite assurances from the government regarding fiscal sustainability, market confidence remains low, with increasing skepticism about Japan's macroeconomic policy direction [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the government may abandon its commitment to annual budget balance and long-term fiscal goals, heightening market sensitivity to fiscal issues [10]. Group 4: Diplomatic Tensions - Diplomatic tensions, particularly related to comments made by Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo regarding China, have led to strong protests from China, impacting Japan's tourism sector [10][11]. - Warnings from Chinese authorities about travel to Japan could result in a loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen in tourism revenue over the next year [11].