【UNFX市场前瞻】政策路径成主线 数据补发或引发新一轮预期切换

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and delayed economic data will be released, marking a critical period for market recalibration [1] - Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and manufacturing metrics will provide insights into the economy's true state, influencing market expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal concerns regarding persistent inflation and financial stability are rising, with upcoming meeting minutes and speeches expected to impact asset performance [1] Economic Data and Market Impact - The release of delayed economic data next week will reveal the underlying economic conditions, potentially reigniting expectations for monetary easing if the data is weak [1] - Conversely, strong data could delay any policy shifts from the Federal Reserve, affecting the direction of interest rates and the dollar [1][2] - The market is likely to experience volatility as traders reassess their positions based on the new data and policy signals [3] Market Behavior and Asset Performance - In a fluctuating risk environment, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may remain strong if data is robust and interpreted as a sign of tighter policy [2] - Gold prices may face pressure but could rebound if economic signals are weak, although structural limitations on its price recovery remain [2] - The stock market is expected to see increased opportunities, but with notable sector rotation, particularly among high-valuation tech and interest-sensitive sectors [2] Trading Strategies - Maintaining flexible positions is crucial during this data-heavy and policy-uncertain phase to allow for adjustments [4] - Traders should focus on volatility opportunities surrounding data releases and significant speeches, potentially employing cross-market hedging strategies [4] - Setting clear stop-loss and take-profit levels at key technical points is essential to manage risks effectively [4]