12.6万跌至9万！1.1万亿市值蒸发，比特币是崩盘还是牛市中场？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic shifts, high leverage in the market, and emotional trading, rather than a systemic collapse of the cryptocurrency market [32]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, but fell to around $90,000 within a month, resulting in a total market cap loss of approximately $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, about a quarter of its peak value [1]. - The most significant drop occurred on October 10, known as "10·10 Liquidation Day," where nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, leading to a $1 trillion decrease in market value [3][4]. - The leverage ratio in the crypto market remains high at 18%, which exacerbates the risk of cascading liquidations when prices breach critical support levels [7]. ETF Impact - The largest Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. (IBIT) experienced a record redemption of $1.6 billion from late October to mid-November, contributing to a total outflow of $3.7 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 10 [11]. - Continuous net redemptions from ETFs indicate a lack of confidence among institutional investors in the short-term market outlook [11]. Investor Behavior - Short-term investors holding 2.8 million Bitcoins are currently at a loss, similar to the situation during the FTX collapse in 2022, leading to panic selling and further price declines [21]. - In contrast, long-term holders have been cashing out profits, with a reduction of 450,000 Bitcoins from long-term addresses since July 2025, indicating a strategic reallocation rather than a bearish sentiment [23]. Historical Context - The current downturn is not unprecedented; Bitcoin has experienced similar significant pullbacks in the past, with two instances of larger declines since 2024 [26]. - Unlike the severe market disruptions seen in 2022 with the collapse of major platforms, the current situation is viewed as a correction rather than a collapse [26]. Regulatory Environment - The European Union is advancing new regulations that will enhance oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges, which may create short-term uncertainty but is expected to stabilize the market in the long run [28]. - The interplay between regulatory developments and Federal Reserve policies will be crucial in determining future market trends [30].