中美争锋无可避免，普京终于要站队，俄罗斯主权债券用人民币计价

Core Viewpoint - Russia's issuance of its first RMB-denominated sovereign bonds is a strategic move to address its financial crisis while simultaneously challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [3][5][46] Group 1: Financial Context - By the end of 2025, Russia's fiscal deficit is projected to reach a historical high of 5.7 trillion rubles, approximately 70.3 billion USD, which is 2.6% of its GDP, significantly exceeding initial targets by nearly five times [7] - Revenue from oil and gas, traditionally a major source of income for Russia, has declined by 20% in the first nine months of 2025, with customs duties also dropping by 19% [9] - The Russian government has been effectively cut off from international financing options in USD and EUR due to Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict, making borrowing a necessity [11] Group 2: Strategic Shift - The decision to issue RMB-denominated bonds reflects a deliberate strategic choice rather than a desperate measure, indicating Russia's alignment with China amid escalating US-China tensions [21][33] - The Russian Finance Minister noted that over 99% of bilateral trade with China in 2025 will be settled in rubles and RMB, up from 90% in 2024, highlighting a significant shift towards using the RMB in trade [23] Group 3: Market Implications - The issuance of RMB bonds is expected to create a closed loop of "RMB financing → RMB investment → RMB settlement," allowing domestic institutions and individuals to absorb the bonds without relying on Chinese investors [27] - This move is anticipated to have a ripple effect on global financial markets, providing a model for other countries seeking alternatives to USD financing, thereby encouraging a broader trend of de-dollarization [35][39] - As of mid-2025, China has signed currency swap agreements with 43 countries, totaling over 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a growing global influence of the RMB [40]