上海二手房挂牌量破37万套，过剩时代已来，谁在制造“房荒”焦虑

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing significant changes in the first half of 2025 due to the implementation of policies such as "沪九条" and "沪七条," leading to a differentiated performance between core and peripheral areas, with a focus on the importance of quality and location in property selection [1][5][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a total of 242,700 transactions, an increase of over 50,000 from 2023, marking a three-year high [2]. - The average transaction price for luxury properties in core areas remains strong, with notable sales such as a 434 square meter unit in Pudong selling for 335,700 yuan per square meter [2]. - The new housing market is characterized by a stark contrast, with luxury properties selling out quickly while demand for affordable housing in suburban areas remains weak, leading to a 24% decline in new home transactions compared to 2023 [8][10]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "沪九条" policy, which relaxed restrictions for single buyers from outside the city, resulted in a 40% increase in transaction volume in the 联洋 area shortly after its implementation [5]. - The "沪七条" policy, which removed distinctions between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, led to a record monthly transaction volume of 29,700 units in December 2024 [5]. - The policies are seen as the most lenient in a decade, significantly stimulating both demand for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their living conditions [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The differentiation in the market is evident, with older neighborhoods in Qingpu and Jiading seeing listing prices drop by over 3% year-on-year, while high-quality properties maintain their value [7]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached 76,135 yuan per square meter in 2024, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by luxury properties [12]. - The market is moving away from speculative buying, with a shift towards more rational purchasing decisions among buyers, reflecting a return to the essence of housing needs [16][20].