车百会张永伟：中国成为全球增量供应链中心，电池装机份额接近70%

Core Insights - The global automotive supply chain is becoming a critical battleground for future competition, with China increasingly playing a prominent role in this landscape [1][3] - Chinese automotive and component manufacturers are gaining traction in overseas markets, driven by a first-mover advantage in electrification and intelligence [1][3] - The focus of supply chain competition is shifting towards three key areas: batteries, chips, and software, which are deemed extremely important yet uncertain [3][8] Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - China has established itself as a center for the global incremental automotive supply chain, with battery installations accounting for nearly 70% of the global total [1][3] - By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's annual vehicle production is expected to reach 40 million, with domestic sales around 27-28 million and exports exceeding 12 million, representing approximately 45% of global production [1][3] - The concept of "含中率" (the proportion of Chinese components used) is anticipated to rise, regardless of the vehicle's production location [1] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Automakers should prioritize building a safe and stable supply chain system, moving away from the previous "just-in-time" inventory model [2] - The automotive industry must adapt to a new strategic requirement for supply chain stability, especially in light of recent global challenges [2][6] Group 3: Key Areas of Competition - The battery sector has shown significant growth, with a cumulative installation of 578.0 GWh in China from January to October this year, marking a 42.4% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The concentration of critical resources like lithium, cobalt, and nickel poses structural risks to the global battery supply chain [3][4] - The ongoing evolution of battery technology, including advancements in liquid and solid-state batteries, introduces further uncertainty [4] Group 4: Chip Supply Chain Concerns - The automotive industry has learned from the "chip shortage" crisis between 2020 and 2023, highlighting the fragility of the chip supply chain [5] - Recent events in the chip industry have renewed focus on the security of the automotive chip supply chain, prompting efforts to establish more autonomous supply chains [5][7] Group 5: Software and Ecosystem Development - Software, particularly operating systems, is becoming increasingly critical in automotive development and application, necessitating early self-sufficiency to avoid high switching costs in the future [8] - The shift from hardware-dominated supply chains to software-centric ecosystems is reshaping the industry landscape [8] Group 6: Globalization and Localization Strategies - Chinese companies face challenges related to trade restrictions and localization risks, necessitating a shift towards localized manufacturing in target markets [9] - The "dual factory" model, which involves establishing a "brain factory" in China and "hands factories" overseas, is being explored to address these challenges [9][10] Group 7: Agility and Responsiveness - Component manufacturers must enhance their responsiveness to customer demands, as the development cycles for vehicles are rapidly shortening [10] - Proximity to automakers is essential for component suppliers to ensure cost-effectiveness and supply chain security [10] - Continuous technological innovation and process iteration are crucial for component manufacturers to avoid obsolescence in a rapidly evolving market [10]