华创证券：就业数据真空期或促使美联储在12月份暂停降息

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, but structural issues remain, suggesting that the improvement may not be sustained into October [1][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding the expected 50,000, with revisions showing July's data adjusted down from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to -4,000 [1]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions [1]. - Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services experienced job losses [1]. Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [2]. - Household survey data indicated an increase of 251,000 in employment, while labor supply grew by 472,000 [2]. Wage Growth and Market Expectations - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [2]. - The annualized rate of wage growth over six months decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, while year-on-year growth remained at 3.8% [2]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [2]. Future Employment Outlook - Despite the marginal improvement in September, the employment situation may not continue to improve into October, as initial jobless claims have stabilized but continued claims are rising [3]. - The ADP employment data for October suggests job additions remain below 50,000, and job vacancy data from Indeed continues to decline [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from nearly 100% to around 40% due to comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for October will not be released due to government shutdown, making September's data the only reference for the Fed's December meeting [5]. - The overall direction for rate cuts in the coming year remains clear, with expectations for at least three more cuts based on current economic conditions [5].