Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-11-22 15:14Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant volatility, with the main contract dropping from over 100,000 yuan/ton to just above 90,000 yuan/ton, while the spot market remains relatively stable but shows signs of price decline [2][5] Price Trends - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have risen approximately 50%, from around 60,000 yuan/ton to just over 90,000 yuan/ton, with a peak of 99,300 yuan/ton on November 20 [3][4] - On November 21, the main futures contract fell by 9% to 91,000 yuan/ton, indicating a divergence between futures and spot prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is expected to shift, with a slight surplus projected for 2026, but potential monthly mismatches due to non-linear growth in energy storage installations [2][6] - Forecasts indicate that China's lithium carbonate demand will increase from 53.4 million tons in 2023 to 121.2 million tons in 2025, while supply is expected to reach 119.8 million tons [5][6] Market Sentiment and Divergence - There are contrasting views within the industry regarding future demand growth, with some executives expressing skepticism about a 50% increase across the board, citing potential demand destruction from rising battery prices [4][5] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with major lithium producers maintaining normal production levels and showing reluctance to increase supply significantly until prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton for an extended period [6][8] Storage Demand Influence - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, with projections indicating a significant increase in storage battery production and market growth [6][7] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with anticipated shipments reaching 780 GWh in 2026, a 50% increase from previous years [6][7]