Eli Lilly Stock Value Tops $1 Trillion. Learn Why And If To Buy $LLY

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 36% this year, achieving a market capitalization of $1 trillion, marking it as the first healthcare company to reach this milestone [2][3] - The stock's rise is attributed to strong growth expectations, particularly from its diabetes and weight loss drugs, and a deal to lower drug prices [3][14] - Analysts suggest it may not be too late for investors to consider Eli Lilly [3] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's Q3 revenue grew by 54% to $17.6 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately $1.5 billion [14] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $7.02, surpassing consensus estimates by over $1 [14] - The company raised its revenue and EPS guidance for 2025 to $63.25 billion and about $22 per share, respectively [14] Market Position - Eli Lilly holds a dominant position in the diabetes and weight loss drug market, controlling about 57% of the U.S. market for incretins [6] - The market for diabetes and weight loss drugs is projected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s [6] - Mounjaro and Zepbound, two of Lilly's key products, have seen significant sales growth, with Mounjaro's revenue increasing by 68% to $5.2 billion and Zepbound's sales rising by 172% to nearly $3.4 billion [7][15] Innovation and Future Growth - Eli Lilly's innovation pipeline includes potential new treatments, such as retatrutide for obesity, expected to report positive trial results in late 2025 [8] - The company has also received FDA approval for an Alzheimer's therapy named Kisunla, which could contribute to future revenue [8] - The success of Eli Lilly's products is attributed to their clinical effectiveness and faster scaling of manufacturing compared to competitors [10][12] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro has outperformed Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in treating both diabetes and weight loss, contributing to its market leadership [10][11] - The competitive advantage stems from Mounjaro's ability to target multiple gut hormones, unlike Novo Nordisk's treatments [10][11] Future Projections - Analysts predict a 30% chance that Eli Lilly's market capitalization could double by 2028 if its innovation pipeline is successful [4] - However, there is a 20% chance that the stock could lose 30% of its value due to price competition and regulatory challenges [4] - Wall Street consensus views the stock as slightly overvalued, with an average price target indicating a 2% overvaluation [18]