11月22日金价：大家要提前做好准备，下周起，金价可能这样走

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, highlighted by a significant drop in gold prices, is primarily driven by the Russian central bank's unexpected sale of gold reserves to address fiscal challenges, alongside changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][5][11]. Market Dynamics - On November 21, gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, peaking at $4088 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $4025.38, marking a single-day movement exceeding $50 [3]. - The London gold price as of November 22 was $4063.94 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.35% from the previous trading day, while the Shanghai gold market showed an increase of 0.49% to 932.03 yuan per gram, indicating a divergence in market behavior [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's policy changes is crucial, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping from over 90% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining current rates rose to 60.4% [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to create uncertainty, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5][11]. Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are at a critical juncture, with short-term traders' positions concentrated around $4050. A breakout in either direction could trigger significant market reactions [7]. - Analysts predict three potential scenarios for gold prices: a rebound towards $4200, a range-bound movement between $3950 and $4150, or a slight pullback testing support at $3850 to $3900 [9][11]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for gold prices, with UBS raising its mid-2026 target from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, while JPMorgan anticipates an average price of $5055 by the end of 2026 [11]. - The global central bank's gold purchases have provided essential support for gold prices, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months and a total of 634 tons purchased globally in the first three quarters [5][11]. Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus remains on the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and central bank purchases, suggesting a strategy of accumulating gold during price dips [13]. - Short-term traders should closely monitor Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments, establishing clear stop-loss and take-profit levels [13][15]. Market Sentiment - The recent outflow of $1 billion from the largest gold ETF indicates shifting investor sentiment, with some reallocating funds towards equities, particularly in the tech sector [13][20]. - The gold market's volatility reflects broader economic uncertainties, with gold maintaining its status as a traditional safe-haven asset amidst fluctuating market conditions [21].