A股：迹象非常明示，牛市没有结束，A股很可能重演2014年行情

Group 1 - The current A-share market is in a phase of transition, characterized by a lack of significant index movement but a critical structural change [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a similar pattern to late 2014, with a potential emotional peak around the Chinese New Year [4][49] - The sentiment is currently cold, which is often a sign of a brewing main upward trend rather than the end of a bull market [6][13] Group 2 - The participation of retail investors is low, with new account openings not showing a significant surge like in 2015 [7][8] - There are no signs of a typical "end-stage frenzy," such as widespread IPOs or a rush for hot stocks [10][11] - The market has not yet reached a stage of universal excitement, indicating that the bull market is still in its mid-phase [13][14] Group 3 - The funding structure is undergoing a transformation, with traditional active funds becoming more selective and focused on familiar sectors [18][20] - Quantitative trading has increased short-term volatility but does not determine long-term trends [19][20] - There is a gradual return of northbound capital, signaling positive market sentiment [21][22] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with a moderately loose monetary and fiscal policy [29][34] - Policies are focused on high-end manufacturing, digital economy, and green energy, which are expected to drive future market performance [36][39] - The stock market is not merely a game of ups and downs but reflects a collective bet on future industrial landscapes [40] Group 5 - The current bull market is more evident in small-cap indices like the CSI 2000 and CSI 500, which have shown significant gains [42][44] - Many stocks have rebounded sharply from their lows, indicating a structural bull market despite the index's lack of movement [44][46] - The real sustained momentum is found in policy-supported sectors and growth-oriented small-cap stocks [46][47] Group 6 - The upcoming months are expected to follow a specific rhythm: confirming a mid-term bottom in November, consolidating in December, and potentially experiencing a significant rally in January [50][53] - The market may undergo a final emotional purge and technical correction before a substantial upward movement [50][51] - January could see a surge in trading volume and a rise in indices, particularly in small-cap stocks with strong performance and policy backing [54][55]