“抛售日本”开始了？高市早苗执意“玩火”引发市场冲击波！

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister, Taro Kono, made erroneous statements leading to heightened tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, prompting China to implement countermeasures such as suspending multiple exchanges and restricting Japanese seafood imports, which indirectly affects Japan's manufacturing supply chain [1] - Market risk aversion has surged, with investors concerned about regional stability, resulting in accelerated capital withdrawal from the Japanese market. Invesco strategist Kinoshita noted that the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is a significant driver of the "sell Japan" trend [1] Group 2 - On November 21, Kono's cabinet announced a 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 140 billion USD) economic stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, which has raised fears of worsening Japan's fiscal situation [3] - Japanese government bonds have faced sell-offs, with bond yields rising for several consecutive days, and the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high, indicating a potential collapse risk for the world's third-largest bond market [3] - The yen is under devaluation pressure, nearing the 160 mark, which approaches the intervention threshold set by the Bank of Japan [3] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 2,500 points in a single week, erasing all gains since Kono took office [3] Group 3 - Investors are worried that Japan may repeat the "mini-budget crisis" seen during former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tenure, where aggressive fiscal policies led to a collapse in market confidence [4] Group 4 - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth after the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to weak domestic demand and export challenges from U.S. tariffs [6] - High valuations in technology stocks have led to correction pressures, compounded by fiscal risks, creating a vicious cycle of "sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currency" [6] - Analysts warn that if Kono loses policy credibility, the sell-off could extend to all Japanese assets, indicating that the current "sell Japan" trend is still in its early stages [6] - There is a critical need for the Kono administration to balance fiscal expansion with debt management; otherwise, prolonged diplomatic stalemates could lead to systemic crises [6] - Bloomberg analysis suggests Japan must find a balance between policy credibility and market stability to avoid a repeat of the "lost decade" [6]