“拯救”安世、稳定德国、抵御美国，稀土“王牌”还能用多久？

Core Viewpoint - China's strategic position in the global rare earth market has evolved from being a low-cost supplier to a rule-maker, leveraging its near-monopoly in heavy rare earth supply to influence global dynamics [3][19]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths have become a central battleground in global resource competition, highlighted by events such as the return of control by Anshi Semiconductor and the EU's urgent consultations with China [3]. - The strategic value of rare earths is underscored by significant profit margins, leading to a thriving smuggling industry that disguises rare earth oxides as common goods [5][7]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - China dominates the global heavy rare earth supply, accounting for 99% of the market, making it difficult for other countries to achieve self-sufficiency in the short term [7][9]. - The production cost of Chinese rare earths is significantly lower than that of Western counterparts, with prices being only 50% of international industry averages [9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Developments - In response to smuggling and to protect strategic resources, China implemented the Rare Earth Management Regulations in 2024, expanding export controls and requiring approval for products containing even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths [7][11]. - China's regulatory approach is now more nuanced, distinguishing between military and civilian uses, thereby maintaining a balance between security and cooperation [13][15]. Group 4: Global Reactions and Alternatives - The price of dysprosium oxide surged from $250 to $1000 per kilogram, prompting urgent discussions between the EU and China, while the U.S. has resorted to high-priced acquisitions to secure rare earth supplies [11][13]. - Alternative supply chains proposed by countries like Japan and France face significant challenges, including high costs and inefficiencies, making it difficult to compete with China's established dominance [13][15]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Outlook - China's rare earth strategy transcends simple export limitations, focusing on building a comprehensive industrial ecosystem that integrates supply, processing, and technological advancements [15][19]. - The ongoing competition in the rare earth sector is fundamentally a contest of technological strength and strategic patience, with China maintaining a leading position due to its cost advantages and technological barriers [17][19].