Ge Long Hui·2025-11-22 20:02Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a stable core business, with AI empowering advertising and e-commerce to accelerate growth in the second half of the year, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 and a target price of HKD 102.81, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] E-commerce Performance - Q3 e-commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, surpassing the previous forecast of 16%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [1] - The company anticipates a Q4 e-commerce GMV growth of 13%, with commission and internal advertising revenue expected to grow by 17% and 13% respectively [1] Advertising Growth - Domestic advertising growth remains robust, with AI support expected to sustain long-term growth; Q1-Q4 year-on-year growth rates are projected at 6%, 12%, 16%, and 14% respectively, with a 15% increase in the second half of the year [1] - The company reported a positive outlook on AI empowerment, estimating that OneRec contributed approximately 4%-5% to Q3 revenue [1] Financial Projections - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for Q3 to over USD 300 million, with an annual target of USD 1.4 billion, indicating stable Q4 revenue driven by price reductions [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at CNY 204 billion, 225 billion, and 259 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision for 2025 and a slight downward adjustment for 2026 due to increased investments in AI and core business [2][3] Valuation - Using a PE valuation method, the company is assigned an 18x PE for 2026, resulting in a reasonable value of CNY 404.8 billion, equivalent to HKD 444.5 billion, with a target price of HKD 102.81 per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]