普京默许，俄银行欲卖储备黄金！财政没钱了、物价飙升，不得不卖？

Core Insights - Russia is facing a series of interconnected challenges amid evolving global dynamics and escalating geopolitical tensions, with its military capabilities showing resilience but economic structural crises nearing a breaking point [1][11] - The Central Bank of Russia has officially initiated the sale of its gold reserves to address a significant budget deficit, a move that even President Putin can only tacitly approve [1][3] Economic Context - Gold reserves are viewed as a financial safety net, with major economies like the US, Germany, Italy, and France holding the majority, and typically only selling in extreme circumstances [3] - Russia's decision to sell gold reflects a state of financial emergency, as it has been forced to implement various urgent measures, including significant tax increases, to cope with fiscal deficits since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict [5][11] Tax and Inflation Dynamics - The tax hikes have temporarily increased fiscal revenue but have led to systemic price increases, disrupted market equilibrium, and significantly raised living costs for citizens [5] - The ruble's continuous depreciation exacerbates economic instability, creating a vicious cycle of tax increases, inflation, and currency devaluation [5] External Pressures - Severe economic and financial sanctions from Western countries have cut off Russia's normal trade channels, putting many Russian enterprises at risk of export disruptions and funding crises [6] - The recent imposition of a 50% tariff on Russian oil products by the US has intensified the economic strain, particularly as India, a key buyer of Russian oil, begins to negotiate reductions in imports [6] Gold Reserve Implications - Russia ranks fifth globally in gold reserves with 2,326 tons, and if it sells more than 25 tons, China could surpass it, reshaping the global gold reserve landscape [8] - The sale of gold is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices, as Russia transitions from a significant buyer to a seller, potentially increasing market supply [8] Future Considerations - The impact of Russia's gold sales on the market will depend on various factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, global geopolitical developments, and asset allocation strategies of multinational financial institutions [8] - The root causes of Russia's economic difficulties stem from both the direct costs of war and the accumulation of long-term structural issues, necessitating a balance between military operations and economic stability [11]