美国把盟友逼急了,欧洲暗备美元后手,去美元化藏新局
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-23 00:05

Core Viewpoint - A secret plan among multiple European central banks and regulatory agencies to build a "dollar asset pool" aims to reduce dependence on the US and prepare for a potential "dollar supply cut" crisis, reflecting deep-seated anxieties about financial security in Europe [4][10]. Group 1: Dependence on the Dollar - The operational logic of dollar hegemony in the global financial system is based on "binding equals control," utilizing the SWIFT settlement system, dollar-denominated global trade, and pricing power of financial derivatives to deeply entangle economies with the dollar [6]. - Over 80% of cross-border trade settlements in Europe rely on the dollar, and financing for multinational corporations is heavily dependent on the dollar bond market, even within the Eurozone [8]. - Europe's urgent need to accumulate a "dollar backup" stems from a collapse of trust among allies, revealing that financial dependence was mistakenly viewed as a "dividend of alliance" [10]. Group 2: Financial Vulnerability - Europe's deep-rooted dependence on the dollar was evident during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, where the Federal Reserve's currency swap mechanism provided crucial liquidity, peaking at $449 billion [13]. - The politicalization of financial tools by the US, especially under Trump's administration, has made Europe acutely aware of the risks associated with relying on US liquidity, as evidenced by actions like freezing Russia's $300 billion foreign reserves [15][16]. - The lack of an independent global settlement network and financing channels means that tightening dollar liquidity could lead to severe financial distress in Europe, with soaring corporate financing costs and disrupted trade [18]. Group 3: Symbolic Significance - The proposed "dollar asset pool" has limited actual rescue capabilities compared to the Federal Reserve's unlimited printing power, and even if it reaches several hundred billion dollars, it would be insufficient in a true financial crisis [22]. - The plan's symbolic significance outweighs its practical effects, indicating a substantive rift in the financial domain among the world's most developed Western allies and signaling a gradual erosion of single currency hegemony [24]. - The global trend towards de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with BRICS nations promoting local currency settlements, ASEAN countries expanding currency swap agreements, and Middle Eastern oil producers exploring non-dollar trade [25].

美国把盟友逼急了,欧洲暗备美元后手,去美元化藏新局 - Reportify