全球爆发流动性危机的可能性有多大？

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in BTC price, breaking below $100,000, raises concerns about global financial market liquidity [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 14, both spot gold and BTC prices experienced a drop of over 3%, closing down more than 2% [4] - Investors are increasingly worried about liquidity issues in the global financial market, prompting a discussion on the principles of cyclical liquidity crises [6] Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - The concept of "safe-haven assets" is critiqued, highlighting that true safe-haven assets are cash, short-term bonds, and money market funds, rather than gold and BTC [7] - The article illustrates a scenario where investors replace cash with safe-haven assets, leading to a distorted pricing framework for risk assets [9][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The article references Ray Dalio's strategy of shorting cash, which has evolved into a widespread practice among investors, leading to inflated prices for gold and BTC [16][20] - The historical context of credit default swaps (CDS) during the 2008 financial crisis is compared to the current reliance on gold and BTC as safe-haven assets, indicating a cycle of moral hazard [27][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been pressured by the "too big to fail" logic, with financial institutions evolving from needing a single "emperor" to a complex web of interconnected entities [30][31] - Despite the Fed's tight monetary policy, financial institutions have found ways to circumvent these restrictions, leading to the creation of "fake cash" through safe-haven assets [32][34] Group 5: Future Implications - The inevitability of intermittent liquidity crises is emphasized, suggesting that without significant crises, the financial system cannot compel the Fed to convert "fake money" into "real money" [37]