12名票委已有5人倾向“不降息”，市场为美联储票委“计票”，“鲍威尔现在不露面，就是为了让每个人声音被听到”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with members showing differing stances on interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a rate cut, which increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with the probability rising from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, while 5 out of 12 voting members have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, indicating a nearly even split among policymakers [1]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting the recent volatility in rate cut expectations [2]. - The traditional consensus decision-making model of the Fed, which has been a hallmark since Powell took over in 2018, is now being tested [2]. - Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, noted that Powell's silence allows each committee member to express their views, which is beneficial for healthy debate [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - The number of dissenting votes has significantly increased this year, breaking records during Powell's tenure, with no unanimous decisions since June [3]. - Research indicates that low dissent levels can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue that it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [3]. - Fed Governor Waller acknowledged the increase in dissenting votes as a sign of reduced groupthink, emphasizing the importance of diverse opinions in decision-making [3]. Group 4: Cautious Stance from Doves - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing caution, with 5 out of 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain current rates next month [4]. - Fed Governor Barr stated the need for careful consideration of monetary policy, reflecting a shift among previously dovish members [4]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has not voted dissentingly in three years, indicated he would do so if necessary, highlighting a willingness to diverge from consensus [4][5]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The decision for December is becoming one of the closest votes in years, with uncertainty prevailing in macroeconomic and monetary policy contexts [6]. - Some economists believe Williams' recent comments have solidified expectations for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain, suggesting a 50-50 chance for the outcome [6].