宏观驱动降温，需求表现分化，铝价重心下移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high point followed by a slight decline, reflecting a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and demand variations [1][4][9] Group 2 - Domestic spot aluminum prices have shown a narrow rebound after a high-level drop, with the A00 aluminum price ranging from 21,550 to 21,590 CNY/ton as of November 20, averaging 21,570 CNY/ton, which is a decrease of 340 CNY/ton or 1.55% from the previous period, but an increase of 790 CNY/ton or 3.80% year-on-year [1][3] - The average price for the period was 21,622 CNY/ton, down by 14 CNY/ton or 0.06% from the previous average [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment is cooling, with a significant divergence in demand across different sectors, leading to a downward shift in aluminum prices [1][2][9] Group 3 - The London aluminum market has seen a decline, with prices dropping to 2,814.5 USD/ton as of November 19, down by 71.5 USD/ton or 2.48% from the previous period, but up by 169 USD/ton or 6.39% year-on-year [5] - Factors influencing this decline include a cooling of previously supportive macroeconomic sentiments and reduced expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][9] Group 4 - Domestic aluminum inventory has increased, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory rising to 69,408 tons, an increase of 4,666 tons or 7.21% from the previous period, but down by 63,993 tons or 47.97% year-on-year [6] - Conversely, London aluminum inventory decreased to 544,075 tons, down by 9,125 tons or 1.65% from the previous period, and down by 167,325 tons or 23.52% year-on-year [6] Group 5 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is operating at a stable capacity utilization rate of over 96%, with ongoing production ramp-up in various regions [7] - The overall supply of aluminum ingots remains normal, with a slight decline in the local conversion rate of aluminum water [7] Group 6 - The aluminum processing market has seen a downward adjustment in prices, with the mainstream price for 3003 aluminum plates in Shandong at 24,270 CNY/ton, down by 340 CNY/ton or 1.38% from the previous period, but up by 790 CNY/ton or 3.36% year-on-year [8] - The decline in aluminum prices has led to a moderate recovery in purchasing willingness among downstream processing plants, although demand remains primarily driven by essential purchases [8] Group 7 - The outlook for the aluminum market suggests that prices may face pressure and fluctuate at high levels, with expectations of a slight decline in average prices [9] - Key influencing factors include macroeconomic uncertainties, upcoming U.S. employment data, and the ongoing monitoring of production cuts in Iceland, alongside varying demand across different sectors [9]