Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express reported a third-quarter revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [1] - The significant growth in profitability is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy leading to an increase in express delivery prices [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the third quarter was 2.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.9% [1] - For the first three quarters, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.46 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 6.73 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year [1] Volume and Pricing Trends - In the third quarter, the company completed a delivery volume of 9.57 billion parcels, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8% [1] - The average revenue per parcel in the third quarter was 1.22 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.02 yuan [1] - The company expects a 10.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in delivery volume for the fourth quarter, driven by the traditional e-commerce peak season [1] Cost and Profitability - The average cost per parcel in the third quarter was 0.91 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.09 yuan [2] - The adjusted operating profit per parcel was 0.25 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company anticipates further cost reduction potential in the long term due to economies of scale and automation [2] Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to shift the express delivery industry from a focus on volume growth to high-quality development [2] - The overall growth rate of delivery volume in the industry is slowing, with a reported year-on-year increase of 7.9% in October [2] - Zhongtong Express, as a market leader with a 19.4% market share, is expected to be less affected by the reduction in low-value parcel demand [2] Valuation Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 10%, 5%, and 2% respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts also increased [3] - The valuation multiple has been lowered to 15.2x for 2025E PE, and the target price has been reduced by 10% to 185.9 HKD / 23.9 USD [3]
中通快递-W(2057.HK)：快递价格止跌回升推升盈利