东吴证券：如何看待近期市场的调整

Core Viewpoint - Since the adjustment of A-shares began on November 14, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 4.8%, with structural adjustments being more pronounced than the index itself, particularly in sectors that previously saw significant gains [2][3] Market Adjustment Factors - The current market adjustment is attributed to both external factors and internal pressures, including global liquidity tightening and concerns over an "AI bubble" affecting technology sectors [2][3] - Global liquidity has been tightening due to multiple factors, including the U.S. government shutdown and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has led to a cautious market outlook [2][3] - The tightening of liquidity is further exacerbated by Japan's proposed fiscal stimulus and mixed signals from U.S. employment data, which do not strongly indicate a need for interest rate cuts [2][3] Historical Context - Historically, the fourth quarter is a "settlement season" for A-shares, where adjustments are common before the spring rally, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 5% even during bull markets [4][5] - The current maximum drawdown of 6.5% since October is considered relatively high compared to historical levels during bull markets [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the current adjustment phase will end after November, leading to an early spring market rally, supported by solid year-end liquidity conditions [6] - The focus for the upcoming spring market is expected to shift towards AI applications and sectors closely aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in technology innovation and advanced manufacturing [6][7] Sector Allocation - If the market begins its spring rally in December, the main investment focus is likely to shift towards AI applications and related sectors, with a historical precedent of sector rebalancing influencing market performance [7] - Key areas of interest include AI applications in healthcare, robotics, and smart driving, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic policy support such as hydrogen energy and quantum technology [7]