CNGR(SZ:300919) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-23 06:52Industry Overview - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is a core material for power and energy storage batteries, known for its high safety, long cycle life, and cost advantages, supporting the global lithium battery supply chain [1] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's lithium-ion battery exports reached $55.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.75%, with domestic new energy vehicle penetration exceeding 45% and energy storage installations surging by 60% [1] - The overall industry output value is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan this year, with LFP materials accounting for nearly 74% of cathode material shipments, laying a solid foundation for the electrification of transportation and the greening of energy [1] Structural Challenges - The industry faces a structural contradiction of "high-end shortage and low-end surplus," with high-end capacity lagging behind demand growth while low-end capacity is severely oversupplied, leading to pressure on overall operating rates [2] - By 2024, domestic LFP cathode material capacity is expected to approach 4.7 million tons, with actual production only around 2.3 million tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of about 50% [2] - From the end of 2022 to August 2025, LFP material prices plummeted from 173,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 80.2%, causing the industry to incur losses for over 36 consecutive months [2] Industry Initiatives - A seminar on LFP material industry cost research was held to explore feasible paths for high-quality development in the lithium battery supply chain, aiming to optimize supply-side dynamics and reverse the low-price competition [3] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association proposed a collaborative action initiative to rebuild market pricing logic based on cost indices, promote innovation, and balance supply and demand [3] Technological Trends - The main competitive focus in the industry is the iteration of technology, particularly the improvement of cathode material density, with high-density products (3.5/4 generations) currently in high demand and commanding significant premiums [4] - The industry structure is expected to gradually adjust, with high-end capacity replacing low-end capacity, although low-end products are currently supported by global energy storage market expansion [4] Company Performance - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on the high growth in energy storage and new energy vehicles, achieving significant growth in its LFP business and reaching nearly 200,000 tons of LFP production capacity [5] - The company has successfully achieved rapid mass production of 3rd and 4th generation LFP, reducing losses and accelerating production processes, while also developing cost-reducing technologies for LFP materials [6] - The company’s third-quarter LFP shipment volume was 43,000 tons, with expectations to reach 155,000 to 160,000 tons for the entire year, indicating a potential turnaround in profitability [6] Resource Strategy - The price of phosphate ore is currently around 1,100 yuan/ton, with a profit of approximately 500 yuan per ton, expected to remain stable until 2028, reinforcing the strategic value of Zhongwei's upstream resource layout [7] - The integrated supply chain from phosphate mining to LFP production not only ensures raw material supply security but also creates significant cost advantages [7]