每经热评 | 美股AI泡沫特征渐显，巨头撑起的繁荣有四重脆弱性

Core Insights - Nvidia reported impressive Q3 earnings with revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding market expectations of $54.92 billion, and a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] - The net profit reached $31.91 billion, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [1] - Despite the positive earnings, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.15% on November 20, reflecting a broader market decline [1] Group 1: AI Infrastructure Investment - AI infrastructure investment is projected to exceed $400 billion globally by 2025, with Nvidia forecasting it to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 [1] - Demand for AI-related hardware remains high, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] Group 2: Market Structure Vulnerabilities - The capital market is heavily skewed towards major players, with OpenAI alone announcing investments totaling $1.4 trillion, leading to a market dominated by a few tech giants [2] - This imbalance creates instability, as any underperformance in AI investment returns could trigger significant valuation adjustments [2] Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The race to develop more powerful AI models has led to massive investments from tech giants, driven by the belief that stronger models equate to better competitive positioning [3] - The focus on efficiency in chip development and model iteration raises questions about whether these advancements will translate into real-world productivity gains [3] Group 4: Disconnect Between Technology and Demand - Tech giants are investing heavily in AI infrastructure out of fear of falling behind, even if the returns do not justify the investments [4] - Nvidia's strategy involves significant investments in ecosystem partners, aiming for these partners to create killer AI products that can sustain market demand for its chips [4] Group 5: Economic Concerns - The U.S. economy's growth is increasingly reliant on data center construction and AI investments, with AI-related investments accounting for nearly 92% of growth in early 2025 [6] - The focus on AI investment may lead to job losses in traditional sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of economic growth driven primarily by capital flow rather than broad-based income growth [6]