外汇汇率的主要影响因素有哪些？

Group 1 - Economic fundamentals are core factors influencing long-term exchange rate trends, with GDP growth reflecting overall economic vitality, strong growth typically leads to increased corporate profits, job opportunities, and consumer spending, attracting foreign investment and driving currency appreciation [1] - Inflation directly affects currency purchasing power; a country with a persistently high inflation rate compared to others may see its currency's actual value decline in international markets, increasing import costs and reducing export competitiveness, potentially leading to currency depreciation [1] - Unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market conditions; lower unemployment often correlates with a well-functioning economy, boosting confidence in the currency and supporting the exchange rate [1] Group 2 - Central bank monetary policy operations have a direct and significant impact on exchange rates; raising benchmark interest rates increases the attractiveness of domestic assets, attracting international capital and leading to currency appreciation, while lowering rates may result in currency depreciation [2] - The balance of payments is a critical factor affecting exchange rates; a surplus in the current account indicates increased net income from foreign trade, supporting the domestic currency, while capital outflows can lead to depreciation [2] - Political stability and geopolitical environment influence market confidence in a country's economic outlook; stable countries attract foreign investment, while geopolitical conflicts may lead to capital flight towards safer assets, affecting currency fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Market expectations play a significant role in short-term exchange rate volatility; participants' analyses of economic data and policy directions shape their expectations, which are reflected in trading behaviors, potentially leading to preemptive currency purchases or sales based on anticipated policy changes [3]