Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-11-23 08:44Core Viewpoint - The current market trend for A-shares is expected to continue upward in the medium to long term, driven by multiple factors including the role of long-term capital, the potential for increased retail investment, enhanced technology innovation policies, and the upward trend in the AI industry [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent adjustment in the A-share technology sector is influenced by the high volatility in the US AI sector and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble," with the Nasdaq index experiencing a decline of -7.03% from October 29 to November 21 [2] - The A-share technology sector has seen larger adjustments compared to the US market, with the ChiNext index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down -12.16% and -11.11% respectively during the same period [2] - The adjustment in the A-share technology sector is attributed to the strong influence of US AI leaders, with significant declines in the computer and media sectors, which fell -9.27% and -11.89% from their peaks [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Adjustments - The decline in the A-share technology sector is primarily due to the adjustment of US AI leaders, with high valuations leading to discussions of a bubble, compounded by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Institutional investors typically adopt defensive strategies towards the end of the year, impacting high-valuation sectors like electronics and communications [3] - A decrease in policy announcements may also lead to reduced trading momentum from leveraged funds [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The technology market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-adjustment, as the likelihood of a fundamental reversal in the AI industry in the US remains low, providing significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [4] - The current stage of the AI sector in A-shares corresponds to a period in the US market where funds are shifting from hardware to applications, indicating that the AI market is far from reaching its peak [4] Group 4: Capital Flow Analysis - There is a mixed trend in capital flow, with both withdrawal and bottom-fishing activities observed; ETF and northbound funds have shown net inflows, particularly on Fridays [5] - Major indices such as the CSI 2000, STAR 50, and dividend index ETFs have continued to see net inflows, indicating a bottom-fishing sentiment [5] - The reduction in major shareholder sell-offs and a noticeable contraction in leveraged funds suggest a cautious approach in the current market environment [5]