沈建光：中国投资并没有失速

Core Viewpoint - The decline in China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth has raised concerns about an "investment slowdown," but the actual contribution of capital formation to GDP growth remains stable, indicating that the situation may not be as dire as perceived [3][4][16]. Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment Trends - China's fixed asset investment growth has significantly decreased, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from 2.8% in the first half of the year to -1.7% by October [5][7]. - The decline in fixed asset investment is evident, with a drop from 2.3% in Q2 to -6.1% in Q3, and further down to -11.2% in October [5][8]. - Despite the decline in FAI, capital formation contributed 0.9% to GDP growth in Q3, supporting a GDP growth rate of 4.8%, only slightly down from 5.2% in Q2 [13]. Group 2: Capital Formation Insights - Capital formation, which is a more accurate representation of investment's contribution to GDP, has not shown a significant decline, contradicting the narrative of an investment slowdown [4][16]. - The capital formation year-on-year growth rate was 3.2% in Q2 and 1.2% in Q3, indicating a slowdown but not a complete collapse [8]. - The contribution of capital formation to GDP remains significant, suggesting that the overall economic impact of investment is still positive [13]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Data - The disparity between fixed asset investment and capital formation can be attributed to different statistical definitions, with FAI reflecting nominal values and capital formation reflecting real values [10][11]. - A notable decline in land acquisition costs, which fell from -8.6% in Q2 to -17.9% in Q3, has significantly impacted fixed asset investment figures [12]. - The growth in intangible assets, such as software investments, has contributed positively to capital formation, further widening the gap between the two metrics [15].