戏剧性反转上演？美联储降息迷雾

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have dramatically reversed within a day, influenced by key economic data and internal policy disagreements [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 35.4% but surged to approximately 70% after New York Fed President John Williams reassured the market about potential rate cuts [1][3] - The mixed signals from the labor market, including a strong increase in non-farm payrolls and a rising unemployment rate, have intensified internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of rate cuts [2][5] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a significant increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since April [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years, while previous months' job growth figures were revised downwards, indicating potential economic concerns [2][5] - The delay in the release of the October non-farm payroll report due to government shutdown has created uncertainty in market assessments, as the report will be published after the Fed's December meeting [4][5]