原恒大首席经济学家任泽平：房价上涨的 3 大信号！

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, but there are signs indicating a potential recovery in the future, as suggested by Ren Zeping, former chief economist of Evergrande Group [1] Group 1: Policy Environment - The policy environment is the primary factor influencing the real estate market, with a shift from strict regulations to supporting reasonable housing demand since 2021. Starting in 2024, various measures such as lowering down payments, relaxing purchase restrictions, and reducing interest rates will be implemented [3] - By the third quarter of 2025, policy measures will intensify, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in non-core areas of first-tier cities and a reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes to 30% [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The real estate cycle is closely linked to the economic cycle, with key indicators such as the PMI index showing recovery in economic vitality, as manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for three consecutive months, and service PMI continues to expand [5] - Social financing data indicates a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in October 2025, with significant improvements in medium to long-term loans for enterprises [5] - The disposable income growth rate for urban residents has rebounded to 5.8%, and consumer confidence indices are on the rise [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - After four years of adjustment, the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is being reshaped, with the new housing inventory turnover period in key cities dropping to under 12 months, and some hot areas experiencing supply shortages [7] - Urbanization continues to provide room for growth, with an annual increase of approximately 10 million urban residents, and ongoing demand for improved housing [7] - On the supply side, developers' land acquisition has decreased by 40% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in future new supply [7] Group 4: Market Performance - In core areas of first-tier cities, quality housing prices are stabilizing, with a 15% increase in transaction volume in the third quarter of this year [8] - Strong second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing continuous talent inflow and a rebound in second-hand housing transactions for six consecutive months [8] - However, third and fourth-tier cities still require a longer time to digest inventory, although some cities with strong industrial foundations are showing signs of improvement [8] Group 5: Signals for Homebuyers - Homebuyers should pay attention to signals such as the comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions, relaxed mortgage standards, and increased monetary support for housing renovation [10] - Market performance indicators include a three-month consecutive increase in second-hand housing viewings and a new housing sales rate recovery to over 60% [10] - Financial conditions are improving, with a cumulative reduction of over 50 basis points in the five-year LPR and enhanced efficiency in bank loan approvals [10] - Major developers are showing renewed enthusiasm for land acquisition, leading to instances of premium transactions in the land market [10] Group 6: Future Outlook - The simultaneous emergence of several key signals may indicate an important turning point for the real estate market. It is essential to remember that housing should ultimately return to its residential attribute, with financial attributes gradually diminishing [12] - The healthy development of the real estate market will require a combination of policy guidance, corporate transformation, and rational expectations from consumers [12]