Bank of America(US:BAC) 智通财经网·2025-11-23 11:19Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for December, with previous optimism about rate cuts being tempered by recent hawkish statements from the Fed [1][4] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that tightening liquidity is impacting multiple asset classes, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market will be the first to sense a shift in central bank policy [1][7] - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, similar to signals observed in December 2018 [1][4] Group 2 - Hartnett forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely initiate a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks [2] - Japan is facing a debt crisis, with a significant decline in 30-year government bonds and the yen nearing a 40-year low against the dollar, raising global liquidity concerns [3] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds [3] Group 3 - U.S. mid-cap stocks are showing a notable divergence in valuation and performance, indicating that the Fed's policy adjustments are lagging behind market demands [4] - The decline in bank and brokerage indices, which are sensitive to liquidity, serves as a leading indicator for potential policy shifts [4] - Hartnett emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, will act as an early warning system for changes in central bank policy due to its sensitivity to liquidity changes [7][8]