Chengxin Lithium(SZ:002240) Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-11-23 11:43Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing volatility due to declining expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing declines in Japanese government bonds, leading to a sell-off in A-shares, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, A-shares saw all three major indices decline, with the non-ferrous metals sector ETF (159876) dropping by 5.62%, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [1]. - Despite the market downturn, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) attracted a net subscription of 85.2 million units, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1]. Group 2: Employment Data and Fed Policy - The U.S. Labor Department reported an unexpected increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, which raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates next month [3]. - Even if the Fed pauses a rate cut, as long as it remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there is still upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices, suggesting that the sector's bullish trend is not over [3]. Group 3: Lithium Market Dynamics - In November, lithium carbonate futures have been on the rise, with prices reaching over 100,000 yuan/ton, marking a 67% increase from the year's low on May 30 [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a supply shortage of approximately 13,000 tons, with demand at 128,000 tons against a supply of 115,000 tons, indicating a continued upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions generally believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with various firms expressing optimism about a comprehensive bull market in non-ferrous metals [4]. - Key investment themes include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) offers broad exposure across various metals, which can help mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].