瑞银上调2026年黄金目标价至4500美元！牛市还将延续

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its gold price target for mid-2026 from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of over 12% from current levels [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025, with an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce [3]. - In October, gold prices reached a historical high of nearly $4,400 per ounce before retreating below $4,000 [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and changes in the U.S. domestic policy environment, particularly related to upcoming midterm elections and increasing fiscal risks, are also significant supports for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for gold is evolving, with increased participation from institutional investors and notable purchases by central banks [7]. - UBS estimates that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 900 tons in 2026, significantly higher than the annual average of 450 to 500 tons from 2010 to 2021 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are optimistic about gold prices, with Goldman predicting a price of $4,900 by the end of 2026 and JPMorgan projecting a range of $4,975 to $5,062 per ounce [12][13]. Group 5: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - UBS recommends that ordinary investors allocate around 5% of their total assets to gold to enhance portfolio diversification and provide a buffer against systemic risks [16]. - The firm suggests a strategy of buying on dips, indicating that investor allocation to gold remains insufficient [16]. Group 6: Future Price Predictions - UBS anticipates that gold prices may consolidate around $4,300 after the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, with potential to reach $4,900 if political and financial risks escalate [18]. - The trend of central banks and investors purchasing gold is likely to continue, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global economic and political uncertainties [18].