美联储大消息！12名票委已有5人倾向“不降息”，市场转向"数票"模式

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 5 members favoring no rate change [1][4]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - The number of dissenting votes has notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June, contrasting with the previously rare occurrence of dissent during Powell's tenure [3]. - Critics argue that a low number of dissenting votes can indicate decision-making confidence, while others warn it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [3]. - Recent dissenting votes include two Fed governors opposing the decision to maintain rates, marking a significant shift in the voting landscape [3]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing caution regarding monetary policy, with 5 out of 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [4]. - Formerly dovish officials, like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have suggested they may dissent if their views diverge significantly from the majority, indicating a healthy debate within the committee [5]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified expectations for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [5][6]. - The general sentiment among policymakers is that uncertainty is a common characteristic of macroeconomic and monetary policy decision-making, complicating the ability to gauge the current economic landscape [5].