合资车企在华竞争局势，开始分化

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show marks a critical test for joint venture brands in the Chinese automotive market, reflecting the industry's transformation and the challenges faced by these brands in adapting to local market dynamics [1][3][28] - The absence of luxury brands from the auto show has become a norm, indicating a significant decline in their market presence due to the rise of domestic electric vehicle manufacturers [4][6] - Joint venture brands are struggling to find new strategic positioning in the Chinese market, with some opting out of the exhibition as they reassess their market strategies [6][7] Industry Trends - The luxury car segment has seen a drastic decline, with imported car sales dropping by 32% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the impact of domestic electric vehicle competition [4][28] - Japanese automakers, traditionally slow to embrace electrification, are now compelled to localize their strategies to remain competitive in China, a key profit source for them [7][28] - The integration of local supply chains is seen as essential for joint venture brands to address issues of technological lag and high costs, although this may lead to a loss of brand differentiation [11][12] Company Strategies - Companies like Toyota and Nissan are incorporating Huawei's "HarmonyOS" into their marketing, indicating a shift towards leveraging local technology to enhance their offerings [9][11] - German brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz are attempting to redefine their brand value by integrating local innovations and technologies into their new electric models [15][19] - Volkswagen is focusing on reliability and safety while promoting its "China speed" in innovation, showcasing a commitment to adapting to local market demands [21][28] Market Dynamics - The market share of joint venture brands has significantly decreased from 60% to 34.8% between 2020 and 2024, despite a slight recovery to over 35% in the first half of 2025 [28] - The transition from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics in the Chinese automotive sector poses new challenges for joint venture brands, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition [28]