苑东生物(688513)2025年三季报点评:主业经营持续改善 创新药进展顺利

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 365 million yuan (-1.55%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 83.59 million yuan (+18.52%, including stock incentive expenses), with a non-GAAP net profit of 69.19 million yuan (+27.85%, including stock incentive expenses), indicating a significant profit surprise due to new product launches and controlled investment in generic drug R&D [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The main business has reached a turning point, with expectations for a return to high growth. The impact of the tenth batch of national procurement has pressured H1 2025 performance, but the second half is expected to benefit from a low base, gradually alleviating procurement pressures [2] - Core products such as Butorphanol, Nalbuphine, and Oxazepam have entered a rapid growth phase, with Q3 2025 operational trends expected to continue and accelerate [2] Group 2: Internationalization and Innovation - The company has achieved breakthroughs in internationalization, with the Naloxone nasal spray production line passing FDA pre-approval inspections with zero defects and awaiting the final inspection report. Exclusive commercialization agreements have been signed with agents in the U.S. and Canada [2] - Strategic control of Chaoyang Pharmaceutical has strengthened the innovation engine, with the company increasing its stake to 51.48% and integrating its core pipeline into the company's innovation system [3] - The progress of Chaoyang's pipeline is promising, with the core product HP-001 showing good safety in Phase I clinical trials and demonstrating "Best-in-Class" potential [3] - The company has also made breakthroughs in independent R&D, with multiple projects entering clinical trials, including the ADC drug YLSHO03 and the third-generation calcium channel modulator EP-02260 [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is rapidly launching new products while actively adjusting R&D investments in generics. Despite the significant impact of the tenth batch of national procurement, the company is expected to unlock stock incentive profit assessment indicators for the year [4] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 277 million, 339 million, and 423 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 16.2%, 22.5%, and 24.7% respectively [4] - The rapid progress of Shanghai Chaoyang's innovative drugs has led to an adjustment in valuation models, with a target market value of 14.6 billion yuan and a target price of 82.5 yuan, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [4]